The success of the industry is despite some manufacturers stating that the target is too challenging.
The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) explained that the zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate considers credits from the sale of lower-emission hybrid petrol and diesel vehicles, alongside fully electric vehicles.
The analysis projects that hybrid vehicles will account for over 3% of the market this year, while fully electric vehicles will represent around 19%.
As a result, the ECIU believes that the industry will meet the ZEV mandate target of 22% for each manufacturer on average.
The percentage will rise each year, reaching 28% in 2025 and 80% by 2030.
The ECIU’s head of transport Colin Walker said: “The mandate is having the desired effect of driving down costs and driving up sales, enabling more families to get behind the wheel of cleaner, cheaper-to-run cars.
“Some manufacturers have been slow to wake up to the global shift towards EVs and are being left behind, but many – including BMW, Mercedes and Hyundai – are ahead of the mandate targets.
“Lowering the UK’s EV ambitions by weakening the mandate would risk putting the UK car industry in the slow lane at a time when global competition is hotting up, and stalling billions of pounds of investment in charging infrastructure.
“Weakening the mandate will remove competition, prices could well increase, growth in EV sales will slow and expansion of the second-hand EV market will be held back, leaving people stuck driving dirtier and more expensive-to-run petrol cars for longer.”
Manufacturers who fail to comply with the mandate or utilise flexibilities, such as purchasing credits from other companies or making additional sales in future years, will be required to pay the Government £15,000 for each polluting vehicle sold above the limits.
The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) argued that the government needs to be more flexible when it comes to meeting EV targets.
SMMT chief executive Mike Hawes said: “While registrations of new electric vehicles are increasing, underlying demand is still significantly below expectations.
“This is forcing manufacturers to subsidise the transition to the tune of £4 billion this year alone.
“Existing flexibilities in the regulation do help, but they are insufficient to meet the challenging target set this year, such that manufacturers are having to consider constraining the sale on non-EV vehicles, credit purchases from rivals, or exorbitant compliance payments to Government.
“A successful mandate that drives decarbonisation needs flexibilities that recognise volume growth is more important than market share.
“Workable regulation – backed with incentives – will set us up for success and green growth over the next decade.”
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